VCU news

By Michael Pratt
VCU Center for Urban Development

Richmond, Va.–The incidence of certain crimes is up in the Richmond area, according to a new poll conducted by Virginia Commonwealth University. The Metro Poll shows residents are beginning to recognize the change - 36% of area residents polled believe that over the last twelve months crime is up in their jurisdiction and 46% believe that it is about the same.  Residents of the city of Richmond are more likely to say crime is up with 49% indicating that crime is up and 34% saying that it is about the same over the last twelve months.  However, in general, residents have not perceived this increase in their own neighborhoods – 10% say that crime is up and 76% say that it is about the same over the last twelve months.  Again, Richmond residents are more likely to say that crime is up in their neighborhoods (19%) while 59% say that it is about the same.  

Interviewing for the Spring/Summer edition of the poll was conducted by telephone June 14 – July 2 with 763 randomly-selected adult residents of metropolitan Richmond (the city of Richmond and the counties of Chesterfield, Hanover and Henrico).  The poll has a sampling error of plus or minus approximately 3.5 percentage points.  Where the answers of subgroups are reported, the sampling error would be higher.  The Metro Poll was first conducted by VCU's Virginia Center for Urban Development in May 1997.

Overall, 69% of the respondents felt that crime was either very serious (20%) or somewhat serious (49%) in their jurisdiction .  While 94% of Richmond respondents said that crime was either a serious problem (53%) or a somewhat serious problem (41%) in their jurisdiction, less than 10% of the county respondents considered crime to be a serious problem and about half of the county residents considered crime to be a somewhat serious problem in their jurisdictions.   

Compared to county residents, Richmond residents also see crime as a relatively more serious problem in their neighborhoods.  Forty-two percent of city respondents said that crime was either a very serious problem (11%) or a somewhat serious problem (31%) in their neighborhoods.  Less than 2% of the county respondents saw crime to be a serious problem in their neighborhoods and less than 14% saw it to be a somewhat serious problem.

"City residents have always considered crime to be a more serious problem in their jurisdiction when compared to county residents.  However, with decreasing crime rates and news stories on the successful efforts of the Richmond Police, in the view of many residents, crime in the city and their neighborhoods has diminished as a serious problem since 1997," says Michael D. Pratt, Professor of Economics and Director of the Virginia Center for Urban Development.  "Now, with actual crime rates seemingly on the increase, will area residents be changing their views on crime as a serious problem?" asks Pratt.

Table 1:  Over the last twelve months, would you say that crime in your city or county has gone… 

Spring/Summer 2002 Metro Poll (Don't Know and No Answer not reported)

 Table 2:  Over the last twelve months, would you say that crime in your neighborhood has gone… (substantive answers)

Spring/Summer 2002 Metro Poll (Don't Know and No Answer not reported)

Spring/Summer 1997-2002 Metro Polls (Don't Know and No Answer not reported)

Spring/Summer 1997-2002 Metro Polls (Don't Know and No Answer not reported)

METHODOLOGY OF THE METRO POLL

Interviewing for the Metro Poll was conducted by telephone from the facilities of the Survey Research Laboratory at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond.  The interviewing is conducted by a staff of professionally trained, paid interviewers using computer-assisted telephone interviewing software.

This edition of the Metro Poll was conducted June 14 – July 2, 2000 with a randomly-selected sample of 763 adult Richmond area residents. 

The sample of telephone numbers was prepared by Genesys Sampling Systems of Ft. Washington, Pennsylvania, and was designed so that all residential telephones, including new and unlisted numbers, had a known chance of inclusion. The cooperation rate for the survey was 46.3%.  Using the CASRO response rate calculations, interviews were obtained with respondents in 36% of the known or assumed residential households in the sample. 

The data were weighted on sex, race, education and population by jurisdiction of residence so as to reflect the demographic composition of the Richmond metropolitan area adult population. Percentages reported in the text and tables are weighted, while the number of cases shown in the tables for various subgroups is the actual number of respondents. 

Questions answered by the sample of 763 adult residents are subject to a sampling error of plus or minus approximately 3.5 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence. This means that in 95 out of 100 samples like the one used here, the results obtained should be no more than 3.5 percentage points above or below the figure that would be obtained by interviewing all adult residents with telephones. Where the answers of subgroups are reported, the sampling error would be higher.  At the 95 percent level of confidence, results based on the sample from the City of Richmond (172) are subject to a sampling error of plus or minus 7.5 percentage points.  Chesterfield County (235), and Henrico County (265) results are subject to a sampling error of plus or minus approximately 6.5 percentage points and results based upon the Hanover County sample (91) are subject to a sampling error of plus or minus 10 percentage points. 

Because of nonresponse (refusals to participate, etc.), standard calculations of sampling error are apt to understate the actual extent to which survey results are at variance with the true population values. Surveys are also subject to errors from sources other than sampling.  While every effort is made to identify such errors, they are often difficult or impossible to measure. Readers making use of the results are urged to be mindful of the limitations inherent in survey research. 

Questions reported in this release were worded as follows: In general, would you say that the crime problem in your neighborhood is very serious, somewhat serious, not very serious, or not at all serious?  Over the last twelve months, would you say that crime in your neighborhood has gone up, gone down, or stayed about the same?  And, in general, would you say that the crime problem in [LOCALITY] as a whole is very serious, somewhat serious, not very serious, or not at all serious?  Over the last twelve months, would you say that crime in [LOCALITY] has gone up, gone down, or stayed about the same?