VCU news

Editor's note: Release is updated to correct the results of the Commonwealth Poll from December and the number of days until the election.

Today, Virginia Commonwealth University’s L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs released the results of its most recent Commonwealth Poll, conducted between June 24 and July 3, 2024. The release comes just days after the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee in this year’s presidential election. There is no information available that would indicate how that event would impact the results of this survey.

That said, with 111 days before Election Day, President Joe Biden trails former President Trump in Virginia 39% to 36%, according to the Summer 2024 Commonwealth Poll. President Biden’s approval hovers around the same support number, at 36% of voters approving of his job as president.

With regard to former President Trump’s criminal conviction in May, over half of voters (53%) say they are less likely to vote for him. In particular, almost half of Independents (45%) in Virginia say they are less likely to vote for him.

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s approval rating fell by about 4 percentage points, and his disapproval rating rose 3 points, since the Wilder School’s Winter 2023 Commonwealth Poll in December, revealing a drop in his overall popularity.

With regard to the U.S. Senate race in Virginia, incumbent Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine has a double-digit lead over Republican opponent Hung Cao (49%-38%).

Voters cite the rising cost of living as the top issue about which they will make their decision to vote, with women’s reproductive rights and immigration ranking second and third, respectively. Related to immigration, over half of Virginia voters (52%) see the country’s immigration system as a major problem.

Douglas Wilder, the 66th governor of Virginia, said, “I think the results show that Virginia is truly a ‘battleground state’ for the presidency. The drop by 20 points (to 46%) of Black Virginians since December, where 67% supported Biden, should be concerning relative to turnout affecting congressional races, in particular in competitive districts 7 and 2.”

Governor Youngkin approval

Half of Virginians (50%) approve of how Governor Youngkin is handling his job as governor of Virginia, with 34% disapproving. This is a 4-point drop in approval and a 3-point increase in disapproval from the Winter 2023 Commonwealth Poll. Governor Youngkin’s approval varies across demographics of Virginians. Democrats were more likely to disapprove of Governor Youngkin’s performance (62%) than approve (23%), while Republicans were more likely to approve (78%) than disapprove (10%). Around half of Independent Virginians approve (49%), with 21% disapproving. Approval ratings also fluctuated based on household income. The highest approval was among those earning less than $20,000 annually (71%) or earning between $70k and $100k (61%), while the lowest approvals were in three income categories between $20k and $70k (43% average). Governor Youngkin’s approval was higher among Black Virginians than in the winter poll (51% versus 36%), and among Hispanic respondents, 35% approve of his performance compared with 51% of non-Hispanic respondents.

Felony conviction of former President Trump

Virginians were asked whether former President Trump’s conviction by a jury on 34 felony counts of falsification of business records in the first degree makes them more or less likely to vote for him for president. Over half of respondents (53%) are less likely to vote for him, while 31% say they are more likely. Around half of Independents (45%) say the conviction makes them less likely to vote for former President Trump, with 25% saying it increases their likelihood. The results were heavily polarized by political party. For Democrats, just 4% are more likely to vote for former President Trump in light of the conviction, with 90% saying it makes them less likely. Conversely, just over 6 in 10 Republican respondents say the conviction makes them more likely to vote for former President Trump, with 18% saying they are less likely.

President Biden approval

Just under 4 in 10 Virginians approve of President Biden’s job performance (36%), with 58% disapproving. There has not been much change since the Winter 2023 Commonwealth Poll. Approval is extremely polarized by political party, with 69% of Democrats approving of President Biden’s performance and 25% disapproving – compared with just 8% of Republicans approving and 90% disapproving. Disapproval has increased significantly among Independent Virginians, with 68% disapproving and just 20% approving – compared with 37% disapproving and 30% approving in the winter poll. Over half of Black Virginians (54%) approve of President Biden’s performance, while female respondents (40%) were somewhat more likely to approve than male respondents (32%). Hispanic respondents were also more likely to approve than non-Hispanic residents (46% versus 36%).

Presidential election intentions

When respondents were asked whom they would vote for if the election for president were held today and they had to decide now, former President Trump, the Republican, slightly leads, with 39% saying they would vote for him, compared with 36% who would vote for President Biden, the Democrat. The difference between the two is less than the margin of error for this poll but sees a shift twards President Trump compared to VCU Wilder School’s December Commonwealth poll which had President Biden leading President Trump (43% - 40%). For the remaining candidates, 9% of Virginians in the new poll say they would vote for Robert Kennedy Jr., 2% for Jill Stein and 1% for Cornel West. Three-quarters of Democrats say they would vote for President Biden, while 82% of Republicans would vote for former President Trump. Six percent of both Democrats and Republicans indicate they would vote for Robert Kennedy Jr. Also, Independents are most likely to vote for Robert Kennedy Jr., with 27% supporting him. Black Virginians are more likely to vote for President Biden (46%), but this number has dropped by 20 points since the winter poll, when 67% supported him.

Senatorial election intentions

Virginians were also asked whether they would vote for Sen. Tim Kaine, the Democrat, or Hung Cao, the Republican, if the election for U.S. senator were held today. Nearly half of Virginians (49%) indicate they would vote for Senator Kaine, with 38% supporting Hung Cao. Preferences were heavily polarized by political party, with 89% of Democrats favoring Senator Kaine and 81% of Republicans favoring Hung Cao. Nearly half of Independents (48%) say they would vote for Senator Kaine.

Most important voting issues

Virginians were then asked to cite the most important issue impacting how they vote. Overall, the three most important voting issues for Virginians are the rising cost of living (31%), women’s reproductive rights (23%) and immigration (12%). For Democrats, the most important issues are women’s reproductive rights (42%) and the rising cost of living (20%). For Republicans, the most important issues are the rising cost of living (43%) and immigration (23%). For Independents, the rising cost of living (36%) and women’s reproductive rights (17%) were the top two issues. Female Virginians were more likely to view women’s reproductive rights as the most important issue (34%) compared with male Virginians (12%).

Concern for illegal immigration at the southern border

Poll respondents were also asked whether they consider illegal immigrants crossing the southern border of the U.S. to be a major problem, minor problem or not a problem at all. Overall, over half of respondents (52%) consider it a major problem, 33% a minor problem, and just 10% say it is not a problem. This issue is another that is strongly polarized by political party. Democrats largely consider it to be a minor problem (56%), while 86% of Republicans and 47% of Independents consider it a major problem. There are also large differences based on the race of respondents, with white individuals (62%) most likely to say it is a major problem while approximately half of Black respondents (51%) say it is a minor problem.