VCU news

By Amelia Heymann

With J.D. Vance and Tim Walz facing off Tuesday in a debate hosted by CBS News, many Americans may be wondering how much influence a vice presidential candidate has in a campaign that focuses on the presidential nominees.

Ahead of the televised matchup, Virginia Commonwealth University political analysts Amanda L. Wintersieck, Ph.D., associate professor in the Department of Political Science and director of the Institute for Democracy, Pluralism and Community Empowerment, and fellow associate professor John Aughenbaugh, Ph.D., offered insight into how or if the vice presidential debate could impact this election cycle.

How can a VP candidate help – or hurt – a presidential campaign?

Wintersieck said vice presidential candidates can help win strategic states and constituencies. She said for a VP to strategically matter in terms of the Electoral College, a presidential nominee would choose a running mate from a battleground state – though in this election, neither VP candidate fits this bill, with Vance serving as a senator from GOP-friendly Ohio and Walz serving as governor of Democrat-friendly Minnesota.

VP candidates can also help by filling perceived gaps in expertise, as Joe Biden did for Barack Obama in 2008 on foreign policy, but that has more to do with altering perceptions of the presidential nominee.

On the other hand, Wintersieck said, a bad VP candidate can hurt a campaign, as Sarah Palin was perceived as doing in 2008 as GOP nominee John McCain’s running mate.

Aughenbaugh noted that while media coverage may focus on how a VP pick may help or hurt a campaign in terms of optics, such as pairing a female vice presidential candidate with a male presidential nominee to attract female voters, research does not support this theory.

But research does suggest that an inexperienced presidential candidate might benefit from a VP choice who reassures voters that the potential president will have a seasoned politician to help them when faced with difficult situations.

“Some examples are George W. Bush picking Dick Cheney in 2000 when Bush had little experience beyond being Texas governor,” Aughenbaugh said. “Or John Kennedy picking Lyndon Johnson in 1960 when Kennedy was a U.S. senator with little governing experience.”

Overall, though, and citing research from the book “Do Running Mates Matter? The Influence of Vice Presidential Candidates in Presidential Elections” by Christopher J. Devine and Kyle C. Kopko, Aughenbaugh said VP candidates typically have little impact on the outcome of elections.

Do VP debates influence voters?

Wintersieck said debates, even presidential ones, rarely matter. An exception is if a performance is viewed as particularly bad, such as Biden’s debate with Donald Trump this year or Richard Nixon’s performance when facing Kennedy in 1960. Another consideration could be a debate’s timing, such as in the last three weeks of a campaign when voters might recall the matchup more clearly.

Aughenbaugh added that there is little to no research suggesting that VP debates, or even presidential ones, will greatly impact voters’ choices or perceptions.

Wintersieck said media coverage of a debate, more than the candidates themselves, may leave an impression on voters – and “debates matter even less today because of the calcification of the electorate.”