In Virginia governor’s race, Democratic candidate Spanberger leads GOP’s Earle-Sears, 49% to 37%

By L. Douglas Wilder and Robyn McDougle

Today, the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University released findings on key policy issues from its latest Commonwealth Poll, conducted between June 19 and July 3. The poll captures voter sentiment in advance of Virginia’s 2025 statewide election, offering insights into candidate matchups and the issues most important to voters.

“The poll results show a clear message from the voters: Performance matters, and so do priorities. This poll should be a wakeup call,” said L. Douglas Wilder, the 66th governor of Virginia. “Governor Youngkin’s slipping numbers among independents and the overwhelming disapproval of Trump make clear that Virginia voters are not buying political spin. They want action on the issues that hit hardest: the rising costs of living, threats to women’s rights and immigration policies. The shift from education to economic and personal freedoms shows an engaged electorate.”

Wilder continued: “As always has been maintained in this space, money and its influence will play a pivotal role in all of the elections. The people are speaking. The question is: Are the ‘leaders’ listening?”

In the race for governor, former congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic candidate, leads Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, 49% to 37%, among registered voters in Virginia. This marks an increase in both Spanberger’s support and her lead compared with the Wilder School’s December 2024 Commonwealth Poll, which had Spanberger ahead 45% to 35%.

The races for lieutenant governor and attorney general show similar dynamics. Democratic state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi leads former radio host John Reid of the GOP, 46% to 36%, while Democratic former Del. Jay Jones holds a 47% to 38% advantage over Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares. Nearly half of independents (47%) report being undecided, a trend consistent across all three matchups. All three races fall outside the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.16 percentage points.

Approval ratings

Among registered voters, 49% approve of the job Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin is doing, while 39% disapprove. Support is highest among Republicans (84%) and lowest among Democrats (20%), with independents closely split (51% disapprove). These numbers reflect a slight decline overall for Youngkin compared with the December 2024 Commonwealth Poll, when 51% of voters approved and 38% disapproved of the governor’s performance.

President Donald Trump remains less popular among Virginia voters. Overall, 40% approve of the job he is doing, while 55% disapprove. The partisan divide is sharp, with 84% of Republicans approving, compared with disapproval from 93% of Democrats and 66% of independents.

Top issues influencing voters

When asked which issue would most influence their vote in the upcoming election, 28% of voters identified the rising cost of living, followed by women’s reproductive rights (14%) and immigration (14%).

These results reflect a clear shift from the December 2024 Commonwealth Poll, when 58% of voters cited the cost of living as their top concern and 14% named K-12 education as their second-most important issue. The findings suggest a reshaping of voter priorities heading into the fall.