Warner's Job Performance Rating Improves Among Independents, Republicans

By David Urban

RICHMOND, Va. (Sept. 21, 2004) — Gov. Mark Warner’s job performance rating has improved among independents and Republicans, according to a new Commonwealth Poll conducted by Virginia Commonwealth University.

More than half, 56 percent, of the poll’s respondents who identified themselves as independents rated Warner’s job performance as “excellent” or “good,” compared with 51 percent in a Commonwealth Poll conducted in April 2004. The governor also gained among Republicans in the new poll, with 51 percent rating his performance as excellent or good, compared with 47 percent in the April poll.

The Commonwealth Poll was conducted between Aug. 24 and Sept. 2 among 803 adults in Virginia. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

A majority of respondents continues to have positive views of Warner’s job performance after nearly three years in office and a major budget battle with the General Assembly during the 2004 session.

Among the 663 respondents who rated Warner’s performance, 58 percent said they believe he is doing an excellent or good job, while 42 percent said it was fair or poor. These percentages compare favorably with the results of the April 2004 poll, in which 55 percent rated Warner’s performance excellent or good, and 45 percent rated it as fair or poor.

Democrats continue to be decidedly more positive about Warner’s performance than Republicans. Seventy percent of respondents identifying themselves as Democrats gave Warner excellent or good ratings. Republicans are almost evenly split with a slight majority of 51 percent saying Warner is doing an excellent or good job and 49 percent saying fair or poor. Among independents, 56 percent rate Warner’s performance excellent or good and 44 percent fair or poor.

“Compared to the April 2004 poll, the improvement in Governor Warner’s overall performance rating, and the changes in his performance rating among Democrats and Republicans, are within the poll’s margin of error,” said David J. Urban, Ph.D., director of The Commonwealth Poll. “The bigger news is the clear improvement in his standing among independents.”

Virginians’ opinions about the financial management of state government are significantly different from what they were in April 2004, moving from clearly negative to almost evenly divided. In the new poll, among the 703 respondents who rated the financial management of state government, a slight majority, 51 percent, said it is excellent, very good, or good, while 49 percent think it is fair or poor.

“This result shows a clear shift in the positive direction compared to the April 2004 poll, conducted in the midst of the state’s budget crisis,” Urban said. “At that time, only 44 percent of the poll’s respondents rated the financial management of state government as excellent, very good or good, and a majority, 56 percent, rated it fair or poor. The poll in its entirety, and its methodology, may be viewed at http://www.vcu.edu/commonwealthpoll/.