Consumer confidence mixed in Virginia

By Cary Funk
VCU Center for Public Policy

Richmond, VA— Virginians are relatively pessimistic about national business conditions but more upbeat when it comes to the state economy and their own personal finances, according to a new poll conducted by Virginia Commonwealth University. The Commonwealth Poll was conducted Feb. 18-28 with 767 adults in Virginia. The margin of error is +/- 4%.

There is a lot of uncertainty over the state of the economy. "There are many indications that the economy has been slowing down nationally," said Cary Funk, Ph.D., director of the Commonwealth Poll. "Expectations on Virginia’s economy are especially important right now because of the ongoing controversy over car tax relief. "

National trends have shown a decline in consumer confidence over the last several months with a noticeable dip in February. Virginians are evenly divided (by 32 to 35%) over whether national business conditions will be good or bad in the coming year.

		National Conditions
		Good Times	Bad Times	Same (vol)
	National Business Conditions Next Year	32%	35%	21%
	National Economy in 5 years	38%	37%	11%
	Buying Big Items now	61%	21%	15%
		State Conditions
		Good Times	Bad Times	Same (vol)
	Virginia Economy Next Year	50%	22%	18%
	Finding a Job in Virginia Next Year	52%	30%	10%
		Personal Finances
		Better	Worse	Same (vol)
	Personal Finances over Last Year	49%	22%	28%
	Personal Finances Next Year	41%	8%	51%

Virginians are more optimistic about economic conditions closer to home. Half expect the Virginia economy to be good next year, compared to just 22% who are expecting bad times for the state. Similarly, 52% expect the coming year to be a good time to look for jobs in Virginia while 30% expect it to be a bad time for job-seeking in the state. Residents in the state’s western part (which includes Roanoke, Lynchburg, and Danville) are more pessimistic. Residents there are evenly divided over whether the state will experience good or bad times in the coming year. Those who already have higher incomes are more optimistic about economic conditions in the state. Republicans are more optimistic about Virginia’s economic outlook than Democrats or Independents, even after controls for income, education, race, sex and age are taken into account in multivariate analyses.

Many Virginians expect to do well with personal family finances, with 41% expecting their personal finances to get better next year. Just 8% expect to do worse and the majority (51%) expect to do about the same. "Many economists feel consumer confidence can affect economic conditions," Funk said.

	Expected Virginia Economy Next Year
	Good times	Bad times	Same (vol)	Number of cases
Total	50%	22%	18%	767
Men	56%	19%	15%	370
Women	44%	25%	21%	397
White	55%	19%	16%	569
Black	33%	34%	22%	133
Less than 35K	43%	34%	18%	204
35-50K	55%	20%	14%	134
50-70K	51%	16%	24%	122
70K and over	58%	14%	14%	200
Northwest	64%	17%	11%	97
Northern VA	54%	16%	17%	204
West	36%	37%	18%	139
South Central	47%	20%	19%	144
Tidewater	50%	20%	21%	183
Republican	67%	11%	12%	222
Democrat	43%	29%	19%	231
Independent	46%	25%	19%	213

Q1. First, we are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?
Better off     49%
Worse off     22
Same (vol)     28
No answer     -

Q2. Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now, you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?
Better off     41%
Worse off     8
Same (vol)     51
No answer     1

Q3. Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?
Good times     32%
Bad times     35
Same (vol)     21
Other (vol)     10
No answer     1

Q4. Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely-that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?
Continuous good times         38%
Periods of unemployment.     37
Same (vol)                                 11
Other (vol)                                 13
No answer                                 1

Q5. About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?
Good time to buy         61%
Bad time to buy             21
Same (vol)                     15
No answer                     3

Q6. What about just in Virginia? Do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?
Good times         50%
Bad times            22
Same (vol)         18
Other (vol)         10
No answer         -

Q7. Thinking about jobs in Virginia, do you think the next twelve months will be a good time or bad time for finding a job in Virginia?
Good time         52%
Bad time             30
Same (vol)         10
Other (vol)         8
No answer         -

METHODOLOGY OF THE COMMONWEALTH POLL

The Commonwealth Poll is an omnibus public opinion survey of Virginia residents. Each survey covers a variety of topics. The survey is conducted by telephone with a randomly-selected sample of adult Virginians.

Interviewing for The Commonwealth Poll was conducted by telephone from the facilities of the Survey and Evaluation Research Laboratory at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond. The interviewing is conducted by a staff of professionally trained, paid interviewers using computer-assisted telephone interviewing software.

The sample of telephone numbers was prepared by Genesys Sampling Systems of Ft. Washington, Pennsylvania, and was designed so that all residential telephones, including new and unlisted numbers, had a known chance of inclusion. The cooperation rate for the survey was 56%. Using the CASRO response rate calculations, interviews were obtained with respondents in 48% of the known or assumed residential households in the sample.

The data were weighted to adjust for unequal probabilities of selection due to multiple telephone lines and multiple adults living in the household. In addition, the data were weighted on sex, race, age, and region of residence to reflect the demographic composition of the Virginia adult population. Percentages reported in the text and tables are weighted, while the number of cases shown in the tables for various subgroups is the actual number of respondents.

Questions answered by the full sample of adults are subject to a sampling error of plus or minus approximately 4 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence. This means that in 95 out of 100 samples like the one used here, the results obtained should be no more than 4 percentage points above or below the figure that would be obtained by interviewing all adult Virginians with telephones. Where the answers of subgroups are reported, the sampling error would be higher. Because of nonresponse (refusals to participate, etc.), standard calculations of sampling error are apt to understate the actual extent to which survey results are at variance with the true population values. Surveys are also subject to errors from sources other than sampling. While every effort is made to identify such errors, they are often difficult or impossible to measure. Readers making use of the results are urged to be mindful of the limitations inherent in survey research.

Further information is available on request from the Director of the Commonwealth Poll, Dr. Cary Funk, at 804 827 1430 or clfunk@vcu.edu. More information on the Commonwealth Poll can be found at http://www.vcu.edu/commonwealthpoll/.