Republican gains in Congress alter relationship with the White House

By Mike Porter

The Republican takeover of the House and significant Republican gains in the Senate create opportunities for both conflict and compromise between Congress and the White House, according to Jennifer L. Thompson, J.D., political science assistant professor at Virginia Commonwealth University’s L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs.

In analyzing the November election, Thompson said voters delivered a clear message.

“The message that voters sent was repudiation of all that President Obama and the Democrats have been doing, whether we’re talking about health care, the Wall Street bailout or tax policies,” Thompson said. “The voters rejected what the Democrats have done on these fronts and they’ve sent an entirely new batch, in many cases, of Republicans to change that agenda.”

Thompson said current voter distrust of all politicians requires Republicans to make progress quickly if they want to maintain public support. But that’s not likely with the Senate and the White House controlled by Democrats. Republicans may need to settle on passing legislation out of the House as a symbolic victory, even if the bills don’t ultimately become law.

“Let’s take health care as an example,” Thompson said. “While it’s very possible that the Republicans in the House might move to try to overturn pieces of the health care bill that was passed in the last Congress, realistically that will never become law because it won’t pass the Senate. But Republicans will pursue it anyway to show voters they’re trying to move in the right direction.”

Thompson said the changing dynamic in the House, with President Obama interacting with both incoming House Speaker John Boehner and minority leader Nancy Pelosi, is another challenge to cooperation.

“So you have this three-person tango going on and how are they going to legislate? How are they going to compromise? I think what you’re going to see from John Boehner is not a lot of willingness to compromise. He feels like he has a mandate and it seems like he does because of the overwhelming victories for Republicans in the House and the gains in the Senate,” Thompson said.  Of course, President Obama feels that he also has a mandate and has made some good ground along with Nancy Pelosi.”

Thompson said that while gridlock may prevail in many areas, there is a chance of reaching compromise on tax cuts, which are popular with Republicans. Many Democrats and the president have expressed a willingness to keep at least some of the cuts in place.

Thompson said any lawmaker interested in job security needs to focus on economic growth, which may provide another opportunity for compromise and bipartisanship. 

“The American people have said we need more jobs, we want to turn this economy around. That is your number one mandate.  So in terms of compromise, I think we will see some compromise there,” Thompson said.

She said President Obama’s ability to get re-elected depends on an economic turnaround more than any other issue.

“President Obama is in a very precarious situation in terms of the 2012 election,” Thompson said. “I think it is an absolute necessity that the economy pick up some ground in order for him to have a chance at victory.”

Playing into the tug-of-war between the White House and Congress is the impact of the Tea Party candidates. Thompson said their success in the November election will embolden the movement, bringing demands for a greater say in the Republican agenda and a push for fielding more Tea Party candidates in 2012.

“I think the Tea Party movement is going to maintain a significant level of influence and control over the Republican Party,” said Thompson. “Incoming Speaker Boehner wants to gain more seats in 2012, so he is going to want to be very mindful of the philosophy of the Tea Party candidates and the people who sent them to Washington.”