VCU Commonwealth Poll Finds Mixed Opinions of McDonnell Job Performance, Tea Party Movement

By Mike Porter

Virginians give Gov. Bob McDonnell mixed reviews after just six months in office, according to a new Commonwealth Poll released Thursday by Virginia Commonwealth University’s Center for Public Policy.

Among those surveyed with an opinion about the governor’s performance, 48 percent say McDonnell is doing an excellent or good job, 52 percent say it is fair or poor. Views about the direction of the state as a whole tilt positive, with 47 percent saying the state is headed in the right direction, 37 percent saying Virginia is on the wrong track and the remaining 16 percent holding no opinion.

The tea party movement garnered national attention over the past year and a half as a potentially sizeable voting group in the congressional elections this fall. Most of the Virginians surveyed are unfamiliar with the tea party movement. Six-in-10 hold no opinion, 19 percent have a favorable view and 21 percent have an unfavorable view of the movement.

These findings are part of a new statewide survey conducted by landline and cellular phone from July 15 through July 19, 2010, with a random sample of 810 adults in Virginia. The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

McDonnell Job Performance

Evaluations of McDonnell’s job performance are mixed, with slightly more taking a negative than positive view of the governor’s performance. Eighty-four percent of the Virginians surveyed rated the governor’s job performance; 16 percent had no opinion. Among those holding an opinion (700 respondents), 48 percent say McDonnell is doing an excellent or good job and 52 percent say it is fair or poor.

Views of McDonnell’s performance track with partisan leanings. Two-thirds of Republicans say McDonnell is doing an excellent or good job in office, a third say his performance is fair or poor. Independents are split, with more giving McDonnell negative than positive marks (46 percent excellent or good compared with 54 percent fair or poor). About a third of Democrats (32 percent) say McDonnell is doing an excellent or good job in office.   

“The job performance ratings are lower than what we saw for past governors at similar points in their terms. But politics is more polarized along partisan lines these days and the economic climate is decidedly more sour than it was several years ago. Gov. McDonnell has strong support from Republicans but less support from Democrats than did governors Kaine or Warner with Republicans early in their terms,” said Cary Funk, Ph.D., director of the Commonwealth Poll and associate professor of the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs.                                                         

Attorney General Job Performance

Evaluations of Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli are also mixed, with slightly more taking a negative than positive view. Fewer Virginians hold an opinion about Cuccinelli’s performance in office relative to views about the governor. Two-thirds (67 percent) of adults expressed an opinion about Cuccinelli’s job performance. Among those with an opinion (570 respondents), 47 percent say Cuccinelli is doing either an excellent or good job and 53 percent say he is doing a fair or poor job.

Tea Party Opinions

Most Virginians surveyed in the poll are unfamiliar with the tea party movement. Six in 10 adults hold no opinion about the tea party movement either because they are undecided or they haven’t heard enough about the movement to have an opinion. Those expressing a viewpoint about the tea party movement are divided in their evaluation; 19 percent have a favorable opinion of the movement while 21 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

The profile of those favoring the tea party movement is largely Republican or Republican-leaning. About half (51 percent) of those with a favorable view of the tea party movement are Republicans, another three in 10 are independents who lean to the Republicans. And 67 percent of those with favorable views of the movement describe themselves as conservatives; 25 percent are moderates.

Among those with a favorable view of the tea party movement, most give both McDonnell and Cuccinelli positive marks. Thirty-seven percent of those favorable to the tea party movement say McDonnell is doing an excellent job as governor, 44 percent say he is doing a good job, and 19 percent say he is doing either a fair or poor job.

A similar pattern occurs in ratings of the attorney general; 30 percent of those favorable to the tea party movement say that Cuccinelli is doing an excellent job as attorney general, 42 percent say he is doing a good job and 28 percent say he is doing either a fair or poor job as attorney general. (These figures are based on those holding an opinion about the governor’s or attorney general’s job performance, respectively.)

“Tea party supporters around the nation tend to be more engaged in politics and have increasingly aligned with the GOP in recent months. Those favorable to the tea party in Virginia are quite positive about the direction of the state, the job performance of the governor and state financial management,” Funk said.

Overall Direction of the State

More hold positive than negative views about the overall direction of Virginia. A plurality of 47 percent says the state is going in the right direction, 37 percent say things have gotten off on the wrong track; the remainder has no opinion on this issue.

Views about the state’s overall direction are related to personal finances as well as partisan leanings. Those with lower incomes are more likely than those with higher incomes to say the state is on the wrong track. Republicans are more likely than either Democrats or Independents to say the state is headed in the right direction.

Financial Management of State Government

Overall, 37 percent of Virginians give the state positive marks for fiscal management as either excellent, very good or good.  This figure is down four points since October 2009, just prior to McDonnell’s election as governor.

“These ratings are surprisingly low in light of the recent announcement that Virginia now has a budget surplus. Public attention to state news is often limited and sporadic so it may take more time for good news of this sort to be reflected in evaluations and a number of other factors may influence public judgments on this as well,” Funk said.

For complete poll questions and detailed tables of results, visit http://www.CommonwealthPoll.vcu.edu/.