VCU Commonwealth Poll finds Obama Leads McCain among Virginia Voters

By Mike Porter

Likely Virginia voters prefer Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama over Republican nominee John McCain by an 11-point margin, according to a new statewide survey released today by Virginia Commonwealth University.  The survey also finds Mark Warner, the Democratic candidate for U.S Senate, holds a strong lead over his Republican opponent, Jim Gilmore.

VCU’s Commonwealth Poll finds 51 percent of likely Virginia voters prefer Obama, compared with 40 percent for McCain. And in the U.S. Senate race, 61 percent of likely voters prefer Warner and 27 percent prefer Gilmore.

The Commonwealth Poll was conducted by telephone with 902 registered voters and 817 likely voters Oct. 20 through Oct. 22, 2008. The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 4 percentage points for registered voters and likely voters, respectively.

“All eyes have been on Virginia voters for the first time in decades,” said Cary Funk, Ph.D., director of the Commonwealth Poll and associate professor in the L Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs.  “Obama’s lead looks strong in both Northern Virginia as well as in the Tidewater region. The most closely divided region of the state is the central region, which includes the greater Richmond area,” Funk said.

Voting intentions are closely aligned with party identification. Obama garners 46 percent to McCain’s 40 percent among independents who are registered to vote. Republican voters support McCain over Obama by a wide margin; 86 percent for McCain to just 10 percent for Obama. Similar portions of Democratic voters support Obama, with 88 percent for Obama to 4 percent for McCain.

Obama has the support of nearly all African-Americans in the state, with 95 percent. McCain leads among white voters in Virginia, 51 percent for McCain to 39 percent for Obama. Among white men, McCain leads over Obama by a 53 percent to 38 percent margin. McCain has a more narrow lead among white women; 49 percent of white women support McCain, 40 percent support Obama.

Obama vs. McCain on the Issues

When asked which candidate would do the best job handling various issues, Obama holds an advantage over McCain, especially on domestic issues. About six in 10 voters, or 61 percent, see Obama as better able to handle health care compared with 28 percent citing McCain. More than half of voters -- 54 percent --say Obama would do the better job on economic issues, while 32 percent say McCain.

Obama holds a slight edge when it comes to the war in Iraq. On this issue, 49 percent of voters say Obama would do the best job, while 44 percent say the same about McCain. The only issue where McCain bests Obama is terrorism. Fifty-one percent of voters say McCain would do the best job handling terrorism, compared with 39 percent saying Obama would.

Candidate Images

There is a marked contrast between the candidates in their personal images. Voters see Obama as a candidate who will “change the way politics in Washington operates” and “cares about people like you.” More voters see McCain, by contrast, as having the “right experience to be president.” More than seven in 10 voters see both candidates as someone who “stands up for what he believes in.” About equal portions of voters describe each candidate as someone who will “make good decisions in a crisis.”

Senate Race

Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, Mark Warner, holds a strong lead over his Republican opponent, Jim Gilmore, among likely voters in the state. Sixty-one percent of likely voters support Warner, while 27 percent supports Gilmore. Among registered voters, Warner leads Gilmore by 59 percent to 25 percent.

More Virginia voters cite the candidate’s leadership ability as critical to their vote decision in the U.S. Senate race than any other factor asked about, with 47 percent of all voters saying leadership ability is critical in their decision. The least commonly cited factor is each candidate’s record as former governor. About three in 10 voters, or 31 percent, call this critical in their vote decision.

Kaine Job Performance

Opinion about the job performance of Gov. Tim Kaine is down somewhat from the spring of this year. Among those rating the governor, 940 respondents, 48 percent call Kaine’s job performance excellent or good, while 52 percent say it is fair or poor.

“Opinion about the governor’s performance has held fairly steady despite the tough economic times that the state and the nation are now going through,” Funk said. “The VCU Commonwealth Poll shows a dip in overall job approval with 48 percent of those who know enough to evaluate this issue giving Governor Kaine an excellent or good rating, down from 54 percent in May.”

When asked about the overall direction of the state, nearly half of Virginians -- 49 percent -- say the state is headed in the wrong direction, while 40 percent of them say the state is generally going in the right direction.

Visit http://www.commonwealthpoll.vcu.edu/ for more information about the current and past survey reports.