VCU Commonwealth Poll: Mark Warner is Better Known and Has a More Favorable Image Than Jim Gilmore

By Mike Porter

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate and former Gov. Mark Warner is one of the best-known political figures in Virginia and enjoys an image that is more positive than negative, according to a new statewide survey conducted by Virginia Commonwealth University.

VCU's Commonwealth Poll finds 47 percent of adults in Virginia have a favorable view of Warner; and 10 percent have an unfavorable view of him. A fifth of adults in Virginia are undecided about Warner and 23 percent haven't heard enough about him to have an opinion.

The Commonwealth Poll was conducted by telephone with a randomly selected sample of 1,003 adults from May 12 through May 18. The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Jim Gilmore, also a former governor and likely GOP candidate for the U.S. Senate this fall, is less well known than Warner. And Gilmore's image is less positive, according to the poll. Fewer than three in 10 (23 percent) have a favorable image of Gilmore; 15 percent are unfavorable, and the remainder are either undecided (21 percent) or don't know enough about Gilmore to have an opinion (41 percent). 

Robert Marshall, a Republican state delegate, is also hoping to get the nod as the GOP candidate for U.S. Senate at the state GOP convention May 31. He is virtually unknown among Virginians at this time, according to the poll. Just 8 percent have an opinion about Marshall.

"These results suggest that Jim Gilmore will need to reintroduce himself to Virginia voters if he is the GOP candidate for the Senate," said Cary Funk, Ph.D., director of the Commonwealth Poll and associate professor of the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs. "As the contest for the U.S. Senate seat begins in earnest, Mark Warner has a clear advantage in terms of name recognition. And those with an opinion about Warner tend to think well of him by a margin of nearly 5 to 1. That compares with a positive-to-negative image of about 1.5 to 1 for Gilmore," Funk said.

Favorability of Kaine, Webb
Gov. Tim Kaine is well regarded in the state. Forty-two percent have a favorable view of Kaine, and 16 percent are unfavorable. Kaine is relatively well known when compared with other state figures. About the same portion of adults in Virginia are able to rate Kaine as rate Mark Warner.

U.S. Sen. Jim Webb tends to have a positive image, but he is not particularly well known in the state. Nearly three-in-10 (28 percent) have a favorable view of Webb, and 14 percent have an unfavorable view. The remainder are either undecided (19 percent) or don't know enough about him (39 percent).

Kaine Job Performance
A majority of Virginians give Kaine positive marks for his performance as governor. Among those who rated the Governor's performance, 858 respondents, 54 percent say he is doing an excellent or good job as governor, while 46 percent say it is fair or poor. Kaine's performance ratings are about the same as they were a few months into his term. In April 2006, the Commonwealth Poll found 56 percent of Virginians gave the governor excellent or good ratings, 44 percent of those who rated said he was doing a fair or poor job.

Performance ratings tend to have a partisan tilt. Among those rating, about two-thirds, (67 percent) of Democrats give Kaine positive marks; Republicans and Independents are split with 48 percent of each group saying Kaine is doing an excellent or good job and 52 percent of each group saying it is fair or poor.

General Assembly
Opinion about the Democratic leaders in the General Assembly tends to be positive. Forty-three percent of Virginians approve of the job Democratic leaders are doing in the General Assembly, while 27 percent disapprove, and the remaining 30 percent have no opinion. Opinion about the Republican leaders in the General Assembly is divided, 34 percent approve, 35 percent disapprove of the job they are doing this year, and 31 percent have no opinion.

"The activities of the General Assembly are often below the radar screen for many Virginians," Funk said. All told, 15 percent of Virginians say they pay a lot of attention to the activities and decisions of the Virginia General Assembly, 43 percent report paying some attention and 41 percent pay not much or no attention.

Other topics in the survey include evaluations of the financial management of state government, issue priorities for the state and quality of life in Virginia.

The complete report is available at: http://www.commonwealthpoll.vcu.edu/CPOLL_state_politics_report_5-23-08_final.pdf.