VCU Professor Says Employment Picture Improving Slowly But Problems Loom

By Tom Gresham

Improvements in the employment picture have been slow, but long-term complications are the larger concern, according to Robert Trumble, professor of management and director of the Virginia Labor Studies Center at VCU.

Trumble said jobs and the unemployment rate remain tied to the economy in the United States, and the economy’s slow improvement has helped employment make small gains. “There are a number of signs that the worst is behind us,” Trumble said. In the U.S., employers as a general rule find that they can find a sufficient number of qualified employees when they are ready to hire. “Our history has shown over and over that when there are jobs we find the people no problem,” Trumble said. However, Trumble said job recovery will be slow and continue to be sluggish until the economy finds more certain footing.

“The economy has to pick up,” Trumble said. “Everyone’s aware of that.”

Trumble believes that the federal stimulus plan has helped the economy rebound and prevented the employment picture from becoming even worse.

“The effort has been a well-managed one,” Trumble said. “That does not mean that we’re over the problem.”

Trumble said the continued economic recovery and the return to businesses hiring at healthy numbers will depend on the small business climate in the U.S. – a particular American strength. “We’re outstanding in this country at creating small businesses,” he said. The success of small businesses overall will be a major influence on when the unemployment rate drops to the level it maintained before the recession hit.

Trumble said there are some major long-term issues that the country will need to solve to avoid significant employment-related problems in the coming years. Two of the largest issues are outsourcing and the aging workforce.

Trumble has studied the former closely, including during a stint as a Fulbright Scholar in India, and believes that the impact of outsourcing on the U.S. worker will continue to grow.

Regarding the aging workforce, Trumble said the U.S. will need to make changes to accommodate a population that is working longer because of longer life expectancies and the inadequacy of retirement funds to provide financial support. As people work longer, it becomes harder for new workers to break into the workforce. This trend will put increasing stress on the unemployment rate unless improvements are made to Social Security and other retirement efforts. If a solution is not found, the situation could turn into a crisis, Trumble said.