Virginians net positive about Governor's job performance

By Cary Funk
VCU Center for Public Policy

Richmond, Va. — Among Virginians with an opinion about Gov. Mark R. Warner’s job performance, six in ten have a positive view while four in ten are more negative according to a new poll conducted by Virginia Commonwealth University. The Commonwealth Poll was conducted July 8-16 with 800 adults in Virginia; eight in ten (636 respondents) gave a rating of the governor’s performance. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4 percentage points.

Governor Warner’s Job Performance Among Those Who Rated

Excellent or Good	Fair or Poor
60%	40%

"How would you rate the job Mark Warner is doing as governor? Do you think that he is doing an excellent, good, fair, or poor job as governor?"

Better than two thirds of his fellow Democrats (69 percent) give Warner either excellent or good markings. Nearly six in ten (59 percent) independents do the same. Republicans are evenly split over Warner’s performance. "These findings are similar to how past governor’s were rated early in their terms, despite the major economic shortfall that Governor Warner had to confront," said Cary Funk, director of the poll. "Sixty-four percent rated then Governor Jim Gilmore as doing an excellent or good job in May 1998 and 68 percent did the same for Governor George Allen in April 1994."

	Excellent or Good	Fair or Poor
Democrats	69%	30%
Independents	59%	41%
Republicans	50%	50%

VCU Commonwealth Poll July 8-16, 2002
Among those who rated
How do you rate the job Mark Warner is doing as Governor?

	Excellent or Good	Fair or Poor	Number of cases
Total	60%	40%	636
Male	56%	44%	291
Female	63%	37%	345
White	60%	40%	465
Black	59%	41%	101
Northwest	64%	36%	83
Northern VA	56%	44%	168
West	64%	36%	125
South Central	58%	42%	134
Tidewater	60%	40%	126
Family Income
Under 35,000	57%	43%	146
35-50,000	65%	35%	112
50-69,000	57%	43%	96
70,000 and above	61%	39%	180
Education
High school or less	61%	39%	181
Some college	55%	45%	198
College grad and up	62%	38%	256
Age
18-29	51%	49%	109
30-44	58%	42%	186
45-64	63%	37%	221
65 and older	69%	31%	102
Party identification
Democrat	69%	31%	177
Republican	50%	50%	184
Independent	59%	41%	205
Political ideology
Liberal	69%	31%	116
Moderate	64%	36%	268
Conservative	49%	51%	213

Method of the VCU Commonwealth Poll
July 8-16, 2002
Number of respondents: 800

The Commonwealth Poll is an omnibus public opinion survey of Virginia residents. Each survey covers a variety of topics. The survey is conducted by telephone with a randomly-selected sample of adult Virginians.
Interviewing for the Commonwealth Poll was conducted by telephone from the facilities of the Survey and Evaluation Research Laboratory at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond. The interviewing is conducted by a staff of professionally trained, paid interviewers using computer-assisted telephone interviewing software.
The sample of telephone numbers was prepared by Genesys Sampling Systems of Ft. Washington, PA, and was designed so that all residential telephones, including new and unlisted numbers, had a known chance of inclusion. The cooperation rate for the survey was 48%. Using the CASRO response rate calculations, interviews were obtained with respondents in 36% of the known or assumed residential households in the sample.
The data were weighted to adjust for unequal probabilities of selection due to multiple telephone lines and multiple adults living in the household. In addition, the data were weighted on sex, race, age and region of residence to reflect the demographic composition of the Virginia adult population. Percentages reported in the text and tables are weighted, while the number of cases shown in the tables for various subgroups is the actual number of respondents.
Questions answered by the full sample of adults are subject to a sampling error of plus or minus approximately 4 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence. This means that in 95 out of 100 samples like the one used here, the results obtained should be no more than 4 percentage points above or below the figure that would be obtained by interviewing all adult Virginians with telephones. Where the answers of subgroups are reported, the sampling error would be higher. Because of nonresponse (refusals to participate, etc.), standard calculations of sampling error are apt to understate the actual extent to which survey results are at variance with the true population values. Surveys are also subject to errors from sources other than sampling. While every effort is made to identify such errors, they are often difficult or impossible to measure. Readers making use of the results are urged to be mindful of the limitations inherent in survey research.
Further information is available on request from the director of the Commonwealth Poll, Dr. Cary Funk, at (804)827-1430 or clfunk@vcu.edu. More information on the Commonwealth Poll can be found at http://www.vcu.edu/commonwealthpoll/.